Oct 11, 2007 

High Dose of 'Mojo' Leads Rockies Over D'Backs

ROX PITCHING, NOT HITTING TAKE NLCS IN FIVE

That fast moving locomotive from Denver blew past me last week. In truth, I had no intention of ever jumping on that bandwagon, but now, it's a different story.

Move over! Here comes the latest bandwagon-jumper to the Colorado Rockies. Incorrectly predicting that the Phillies would sweep the Rockies instead of the other way around has proven to be one of my greatest misreads ever. I mean, I had the series called except the wrong team. I'm not going to make that same mistake twice, even if continuing a 17-1 streak seems like a tall order.

I'm reserving my World Series pick for later, but the American League champ best book a hotel in Denver in 13 days time.

It's not that Rockies have a leg up at every position except maybe the manager and the big ace Brandon Webb, but because during the wildcard playoff era a certain thing called momentum has proven more potent than three excellent starting pitchers and the best collection of hitters. Every World Series champion from 2001 on has been the benefactor of that certain mysterious substance called "mojo".

It could be many factors including parity or more succinctly because the dreaded Yankees have stumbled every year during this period. Whatever the reason, the Rockies have it starting Game 1 of the NLCS against Arizona.

I agree with everyone who says the key for the Diamondbacks is to get Webb to shutdown the Rockies tonight and in Game 4 and Game 7 on short rest if needed. Isn't this the same logic that many had for the Phillies to beat Colorado? Two Herculean efforts by Cole Hamels and the Phils advance? It didn't work out that way and assumptions like that rarely happen in baseball where anything can happen anytime.

Ironically, the most impressive part of the Rockies late-season run hasn't been their potent offense, but the excellent delineation of pitching roles. Starter Jeff Francis was impressive for six inning in the Division Series, but that wasn't a surprise he won 17 during the season. Having rookie Ubaldo Jimenez shine was, but you don't have to superstars in the rotation in a short series because there's precedent.

The 1987 Minnesota Twins, an unheralded postseason squad like Colorado, won the World Series ostensibly with one great pitcher (Frank Viola), an over-the-hill curveballer (Bert Blyleven) and a guy nobody heard from before or after the those playoffs (Les Straker). That team got the game to the late innings and brought in three excellent relievers--Joe Klink as the lefty, and Juan Berenguer setting up the closer, Jeff Reardon.

The Rockies are doing the same thing 20 years later with Matt Herges in the seventh, followed by Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas as the closer. None of them are household name but they were the key to kicking the air out of the Phillies' balloon.

Even though the Diamondbacks have Bob Melvin, who has been pushing all the right buttons all year for this young team, I still believe as I did in the Cubs series that this team could be prone to breakdown during the pressure of the NLCS. They're too young and a team led by the often times kooky Eric Byrnes is a bit disconcerting.
ROCKIES IN FIVE.

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Oct 3, 2007 

Veteran Cubs Battle Unproven Diamondbacks

CHICAGO VS. ARIZONA (starts Wed.)
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The Arizona Diamondbacks remind me of the Oakland Athletics circa 2001. Those A's were built with a specific blueprint of patient power hitting, strong pitching and defense played by a largely inexperienced club. Those clubs, probably the peak of the Billy Beane era in Oakland were perennial winners who flopped in the Division Series.

There was a flaw in Oakland's blueprint, they could breeze through the regular season despite playing dreadfully in April and May, but could not win that crucial elimination game. Why? Because their dogma of high on-base percentage hitting and an inability to play any other type of game in October tied their hands. It was also the prevalence of youth, but moreso, inexperience that was the A's downfall.

Whether it was Terrence Long losing a flyball in the twinight sky, a Miguel Tejada baserunning blunder or Eric Byrnes forgetting to step on home plate. Something strange bit this team every October. Arizona is the same type of club. Note, that their leader is the same Eric Byrnes and concerns about beating the Cubs should be raised.

By all accounts, the rebuidling D'Backs are about a year or two ahead of schedule, but they are placing much of the pressure of advancing on budding young stars like Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Jeff Salazar.

After Brandon Webb and Jose Valverde in the bullpen there's not much in between. The Cubs, on the other hand, have veterans throughout the lineup. I like players like Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Derek Lee in a series like this where the possibility of error is lower than Arizona.

I know that many have attributed Arizona's manager Bob Melvin with much of the team's success despite scoring fewer runs they gave up, but I like a savvy old vet like Lou Piniella in the Cubs dugout outmaneuvering the former Giants catcher. CUBS IN FIVE

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